Heard ferrosilicon in bungee jumping?
Date：2017/3/19 23:34:52
Today's large-scale ex-factory price of ferrosilicon in the northwest strong pull up, offer peak 75A natural block 5900,75B natural block 5700, part of the enterprise hot pursuit trend pull up to 75B since the price increase 5400-5500, there are companies wait and see, Closing the offer. In addition, accompanied by a strong daily limit futures today, ferrosilicon changed the early decline, once again aroused the concern of the market. Some ups and downs of some fly straight down three thousand feet and soared up to nine thousand miles of meaning. Spread of the disparity of the market as much as the imitation of the market, it is not a family, do not enter a door, double silicon at the same time pulled up detonated March small spring.
Nearly three months of ferrosilicon prices bungee jumping trend is not without trace, the market will make subtle changes in the butterfly effect, is the so-called yesterday, because today, the recent, due to fruit. Xiaobian try to analyze the status of the current ferrosilicon from several aspects.
First look at the data. According to Mysteel ferroalloy research statistics: 2017 January-February the main ferrosilicon production enterprises about 65, 1-2 months of the national ferrosilicon production of 623,100 tons, which in January the national ferrosilicon production is estimated at 32.4065 million tons , In February the national ferrosilicon production was 29.9065 million tons; February chain year-on-year decline of 11.25%, 1-2 month chain fell 6.59% over the same period last year.
Operating rate is low
At present, the whole northwest market operating rate is still at the middle level, especially in Ningxia ferrosilicon operating rate continued to decline, the national ferrosilicon production in February less than 300,000 tons, is the lowest in recent years. Although Ningxia Zhongwei area in mid to late March there will be some of the stove began to re-production, but manufacturers generally reflect, even began to start furnace, ferrosilicon workers are also very difficult to find, the beginning of the spring caused by labor shortage, it will inhibit the ferrosilicon operating rate rise.
Cost upside down obviously
The end of the second half of the domestic ferrosilicon enterprise costs began to appear upside down phenomenon, the cost of the link to deal with some of the ferrosilicon enterprise costs can barely flat, and according to my network understanding, most of the cost of ferrosilicon manufacturers cost pressures, pre-Northwest Ferrosilicon natural block mainstream offer maintained at 4500-4600 yuan / ton, the actual transaction price remained at 4,500 yuan / ton below the level, according to the early stage of ferrosilicon in Qinghai 4800-4900 yuan / ton, manufacturers upside down production is bound to cause some enterprises Strategic shutdown, in addition, ferromagnetic iron enterprises in Ningxia and the high price of blue carbon, even if the spot price remained at 5100 yuan / ton factory level, there are still some enterprises in the cost of upside down. Recently, manufacturers also offer a gradual rise in the trend, 72 iron main producing areas qualified block offer rose to 5100-5300 yuan / ton are, 75 iron block block offer rose to 5200-5400 yuan / ton. After a long time after the loss, the price once reversed, the manufacturers are bound to chase prices.
Downstream demand release
With the end of the two sessions, the downstream end of the steel plant began to fire up the line from the sleeves production, the last three months and four months is the steel production high point, the downstream demand concentrated release. According to my network statistics, in February the national crude steel production was 59.29 million tons, an increase of 3.345 million tons, the supply and demand pattern has been broken, some manufacturers some time ago for sale, Northwest ferrosilicon also said that the current inventory is very tight to supply Steel demand delivery orders, have adopted a suspension of pricing measures, and the recent rebound in prices caused by panic buying, traders looking for goods positive, the market price transactions chaotic, and in February the national total output of ferrosilicon is less than 300,000 tons, for the 14 months since the lowest value, traders mention cash pick up is also difficult to act. Supply and demand pattern and cost side will support ferrosilicon prices continue upward.
Inventory shortage pressure
Recently, ferrosilicon enterprises in the northwest began to offer no external offer, only orders to supply steel supply orders, the factory stock tight, every day traders and downstream customers to the factory inquiry. In addition, the Ningxia region in the busy period, the loading and unloading workers in Inner Mongolia shortage, the implementation of pre-order time to extend, even if the spot also need time to wait, and with the recent 72 ferrosilicon from 4500 callback to 5100, inventory consumption of seventy-eight , Short-term can only be closed not quoted, eliminating the order-based.
The recent low operating rate + demand + cost upside down + inventory pressure gave ferrosilicon continued to provide sufficient reason and space, odd goods can be home, Luoyang paper expensive, supply and demand balance is broken at the same time will naturally lead to changes in market prices, but A short period of time for two consecutive ferrosilicon pulled up also need to see the acceptance of the downstream market. In addition, the ferrosilicon production in March is expected to rise slightly in February, it is understood that at the end of March a Gansu plant 2 sets of 25,000 stoves will resume production, and Zhongwei a plant 2 ferrosilicon furnace will also be Put into production in March. The increase in operating rate will ease the pressure on the supply side, the supply situation will be improved, but in April to begin to show. Short-term ferrosilicon steady upward power sufficient reason for the full supply and demand in April under the premise of unabated steel mills, ferrosilicon market high trend will continue!
The beginning of the downstream steel prices remain high, the steel market profit is more objective, the site through the multi-channel understanding of ferrosilicon enterprises may have to reduce the price through the price, today's large area of the Northwest region price adjustment can be considered unexpected, if the ferrosilicon rose Too small, pre-cost upside down losses of enterprises may be a substantial cut-off production, but more detrimental to the healthy and orderly development of the industry. Flying down and skyrocketing skyrocketing prices we all do not want to see, but not out of the fundamentals of the market ups and downs belong to the market self-regulation. In addition, according to my network to understand that although the Northwest market offer high, but there is no actual transaction, the current transaction price is still living around 5300-5400, whether the price stability is also necessary in April after the steel tender to start, but whether it is 5300 Or 5900, the current trend of stable ferrosilicon will not change.
Source: My Steel Network
Nearly three months of ferrosilicon prices bungee jumping trend is not without trace, the market will make subtle changes in the butterfly effect, is the so-called yesterday, because today, the recent, due to fruit. Xiaobian try to analyze the status of the current ferrosilicon from several aspects.
First look at the data. According to Mysteel ferroalloy research statistics: 2017 January-February the main ferrosilicon production enterprises about 65, 1-2 months of the national ferrosilicon production of 623,100 tons, which in January the national ferrosilicon production is estimated at 32.4065 million tons , In February the national ferrosilicon production was 29.9065 million tons; February chain year-on-year decline of 11.25%, 1-2 month chain fell 6.59% over the same period last year.
Operating rate is low
At present, the whole northwest market operating rate is still at the middle level, especially in Ningxia ferrosilicon operating rate continued to decline, the national ferrosilicon production in February less than 300,000 tons, is the lowest in recent years. Although Ningxia Zhongwei area in mid to late March there will be some of the stove began to re-production, but manufacturers generally reflect, even began to start furnace, ferrosilicon workers are also very difficult to find, the beginning of the spring caused by labor shortage, it will inhibit the ferrosilicon operating rate rise.
Cost upside down obviously
The end of the second half of the domestic ferrosilicon enterprise costs began to appear upside down phenomenon, the cost of the link to deal with some of the ferrosilicon enterprise costs can barely flat, and according to my network understanding, most of the cost of ferrosilicon manufacturers cost pressures, pre-Northwest Ferrosilicon natural block mainstream offer maintained at 4500-4600 yuan / ton, the actual transaction price remained at 4,500 yuan / ton below the level, according to the early stage of ferrosilicon in Qinghai 4800-4900 yuan / ton, manufacturers upside down production is bound to cause some enterprises Strategic shutdown, in addition, ferromagnetic iron enterprises in Ningxia and the high price of blue carbon, even if the spot price remained at 5100 yuan / ton factory level, there are still some enterprises in the cost of upside down. Recently, manufacturers also offer a gradual rise in the trend, 72 iron main producing areas qualified block offer rose to 5100-5300 yuan / ton are, 75 iron block block offer rose to 5200-5400 yuan / ton. After a long time after the loss, the price once reversed, the manufacturers are bound to chase prices.
Downstream demand release
With the end of the two sessions, the downstream end of the steel plant began to fire up the line from the sleeves production, the last three months and four months is the steel production high point, the downstream demand concentrated release. According to my network statistics, in February the national crude steel production was 59.29 million tons, an increase of 3.345 million tons, the supply and demand pattern has been broken, some manufacturers some time ago for sale, Northwest ferrosilicon also said that the current inventory is very tight to supply Steel demand delivery orders, have adopted a suspension of pricing measures, and the recent rebound in prices caused by panic buying, traders looking for goods positive, the market price transactions chaotic, and in February the national total output of ferrosilicon is less than 300,000 tons, for the 14 months since the lowest value, traders mention cash pick up is also difficult to act. Supply and demand pattern and cost side will support ferrosilicon prices continue upward.
Inventory shortage pressure
Recently, ferrosilicon enterprises in the northwest began to offer no external offer, only orders to supply steel supply orders, the factory stock tight, every day traders and downstream customers to the factory inquiry. In addition, the Ningxia region in the busy period, the loading and unloading workers in Inner Mongolia shortage, the implementation of pre-order time to extend, even if the spot also need time to wait, and with the recent 72 ferrosilicon from 4500 callback to 5100, inventory consumption of seventy-eight , Short-term can only be closed not quoted, eliminating the order-based.
The recent low operating rate + demand + cost upside down + inventory pressure gave ferrosilicon continued to provide sufficient reason and space, odd goods can be home, Luoyang paper expensive, supply and demand balance is broken at the same time will naturally lead to changes in market prices, but A short period of time for two consecutive ferrosilicon pulled up also need to see the acceptance of the downstream market. In addition, the ferrosilicon production in March is expected to rise slightly in February, it is understood that at the end of March a Gansu plant 2 sets of 25,000 stoves will resume production, and Zhongwei a plant 2 ferrosilicon furnace will also be Put into production in March. The increase in operating rate will ease the pressure on the supply side, the supply situation will be improved, but in April to begin to show. Short-term ferrosilicon steady upward power sufficient reason for the full supply and demand in April under the premise of unabated steel mills, ferrosilicon market high trend will continue!
The beginning of the downstream steel prices remain high, the steel market profit is more objective, the site through the multi-channel understanding of ferrosilicon enterprises may have to reduce the price through the price, today's large area of the Northwest region price adjustment can be considered unexpected, if the ferrosilicon rose Too small, pre-cost upside down losses of enterprises may be a substantial cut-off production, but more detrimental to the healthy and orderly development of the industry. Flying down and skyrocketing skyrocketing prices we all do not want to see, but not out of the fundamentals of the market ups and downs belong to the market self-regulation. In addition, according to my network to understand that although the Northwest market offer high, but there is no actual transaction, the current transaction price is still living around 5300-5400, whether the price stability is also necessary in April after the steel tender to start, but whether it is 5300 Or 5900, the current trend of stable ferrosilicon will not change.
Source: My Steel Network